We estimate the budgetary, economic and distributional effects of eliminating all Schedule-A itemized deductions starting on January 1st, 2021. We project that it would raise about $2.1 trillion of additional revenue on a conventional basis over the 10-year budget window and increase GDP by 2.3 percent by 2050. Families in the top 10 percent of the income distribution would bear 75 percent of the overall burden of this tax increase.
Policy Options: Increase Tax Rates on Capital Gains & Dividends
We estimate the budgetary and economic effects of increasing the top rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends from 20 percent to 24.2 percent, which is enacted on January 1st, 2021. We project that it will raise around $60 billion of additional revenue on a conventional basis over the 10-year budget window and increase GDP by 0.1 percent by 2050.
Policy Options: A 1% Value-Added Tax
We estimate the budgetary and economic effects of a new broad-based 1 percent value-added tax (VAT) with a progressive universal rebate calculated based on earnings, which is enacted on January 1st, 2021. We project that it will raise $700 billion of additional revenue on a conventional basis over the 10-year budget window and increase GDP by 0.8 percent by 2050.
Policy Options: A Carbon Tax of $30 per ton
We estimate the budgetary and economic effects of a new carbon tax of $30 per ton of emissions, which is enacted on January 1st, 2021, rising by inflation plus 5 percent through 2050. We project that it raises $1.6 trillion of additional revenue on a conventional basis over the 10-year budget window and increases GDP by 2.2 percent by 2050.
Social Security Projections: Competing Baselines
The Social Security Trust Fund is projected to be depleted between 2032 - 2035, depending on various assumptions.
Upon Trust Fund depletion, Social Security’s “payable” benefits--corresponding to a precise “current law” definition and based on annual payroll taxes collected in each year-- will equal between 70 - 75 percent of the “scheduled” benefits, based on the statutory formulas currently used to determine benefit levels (“current policy”).
Since Social Security’s financial projections typically extend beyond the depletion date, a modeling assumption must be made for benefit payments (“payable” or “scheduled,” “current law” or “current policy”) after Trust Fund depletion when projecting the impact of potential Social Security reforms on the economy. This decision plays a major role in projections of different potential reforms on the economy.
The Social Security 2100 Act: Updated Analysis of Effects on Social Security Finances and the Economy
In this update to our analysis, we project that the Social Security 2100 Act would eliminate Social Security’s conventional long-range imbalance while reducing the program’s short-range imbalance on a dynamic basis.
The Act reduces annual shortfalls that would otherwise add to national deficits under current policy, but at the cost of new tax distortions. In the short run, the two effects nearly offset in the macroeconomy. We project that the Act decreases GDP by 0.7 percent by 2029 and decreases GDP by 2.7 percent by 2049.
PWBM previously analyzed the Social Security 2100 bill in March of this year. Since that time, PWBM has made enhancements to both our Social Security and our dynamic overlapping generations equilibrium models. These enhancements were made as part of our ongoing process to continually develop the most flexible and dependable model possible.
Program Choice and Financing Matter for Infrastructure Plans
PWBM’s Jon Huntley and Richard Prisinzano discussed how the financing of a federal infrastructure plan influences its effect on economic growth. Even though infrastructure investments increase productivity, plans that are deficit-financed can reduce GDP relative to current policy.
Payroll Tax Holiday: Budgetary, Economic, and Distributional Effects
We estimate that a one-year “payroll tax holiday” would cost the federal government between $141 and $151 billion over the standard budget window and increase GDP by 0.3 percent in 2020, with effects eventually turning slightly negative over time with higher deficits.
The Effect of the U.S. - China Trade War on the U.S. Economy
PWBM’s Efraim Berkovich, the Wharton School’s Marshall Meyer and Mary Lovely of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University discussed how the recently imposed tariffs on Chinese goods are raising prices for consumers, disrupting supply chains and weighing down economic growth in the long-run.
Are Tariffs a Drag? Trade War Pushes Interest Rates Up, Economy Down
We find that, excluding times of intervention by the Federal Reserve, interest rates on U.S. government debt are higher when levels of effective openness to foreign capital flows are lower, increasing the government’s borrowing costs.
The Trade War Trade-Off: Short Term Gains Then Long Term Losses
We project that even if the recently imposed tariffs are removed, GDP will be permanently smaller relative to having had no trade war. Extending the current trade war by several more years will lead to smaller losses in GDP in 2020 but will reduce GDP by more in the long run.
The Effects of Growing Federal Debt on the United States’ Economy
In today’s low interest rate environment, the cost of federal debt is lower than it used to be. However, long-run concerns loom. PWBM projections show that policies that reduce federal debt over time produce more economic growth than current policy.
The White House's Plan for Indexing Capital Gains to Inflation
Bloomberg’s Saleha Mohsin reports the Trump administration’s plan to index capital gains to inflation. Citing PWBM’s analysis, Mohsin highlights that indexing capital gains will disproportionately benefit those with high incomes.
PWBM Projections In-Line with Official Government Estimates
In the Congressional Research Service’s report on the economic effects of the 2017 tax bill, Senior Specialist in Economic Policy Jane Gravelle and Specialist in Public Finance Donald Marples analyzed the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) on output and growth.
Federal Debt Still Matters
Lower interest rates since 2008 have reduced the cost of federal debt per dollar relative to the period before 2008. However, PWBM projects that the sheer size of federal debt will reach 190 percent of GDP by 2050 under present law. Even with low borrowing rates, stabilizing the debt-to-GDP level at its current value could increase GDP in 2050 by one to three times more than the projections we previously provided for the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Tariff’s Projected to Raise Prices for Americans
The New York Times’ Jim Tankersley cites PWBM in an explanation of how Trump's tariffs erase the benefits of the current tax cuts. In particular, Tankersley finds that the benefits of Trump's tax cuts to the lower and middle classes will likely unwind as a result of his tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and Europe.
Seven U.S. Economic Models Project Rapid Growth of Federal Debt
At the National Tax Association Spring Symposium, PWBM participated in a roundtable with other economic modelers. All modelers showed the results of cutting Social Security benefits by one-third in 2031. All models found that even with a benefit cut, by mid-century the U.S. still has a sizable debt-to-GDP ratio.
The $2 Trillion Congressional Democrat and White House Infrastructure Proposal
Due to various offsets, a $2 trillion federal investment would increase infrastructure spending across all levels of government increases between $440 billion and $2,033 billion---including the original $2 trillion---based on evidence of past experience.
If a gas tax were used to fully fund the $2 trillion investment, the gas tax would have to rise by $1.67 per gallon for 10 years, thereby increasing the current federal gas tax from $0.184 (18.4 cents) per gallon to $1.854 per gallon.
If fully deficit-financed, the $2 trillion infrastructure proposal lowers GDP between 0.1 and 0.5 by 2043, relative to current policy. If fully financed with user fees or higher gas taxes it typically boosts GDP, between -0.1 and 0.4 percent by 2043.
Tariff Increases Will Cost U.S. Households
In Trump’s tariffs are equivalent to one of the largest tax increases in decades CNBC’s Steve Liesman analyses data from the Treasury Department to find that tariffs proposed by President Trump will raise $72 billion in revenue. Previously, PWBM has estimated the economic costs of a trade war and that the impact of a trade war could wipe out economic gains from last year’s tax cuts.
Effects of the Closure Rule in PWBM’s Dynamic OLG Model
The closure rule is a necessary model assumption that prevents the debt-to-GDP ratio from exploding in the long-run. PWBM finds that each closure year assumption delivers similar results for macroeconomic variables over the next two decades.